Sarawak still BN's fortress

So it’s 2-1. This is neither the result of any of the final lap of the on-going English Premier League games but the result of the three by-elections or tri-elections held on Tuesday.
Pakatan Rakyat (PR) retained the two seats- Bukit Gantang parliamentary seat and Bukit Selambau state seat it won in March 8 general election last year with increased majorities while Barisan Nasional (BN) retained the Batang Ai state seat by doubling the number of votes it garnered in 2006 state election.
An English national paper called these results a status quo but what could we expect from it? Is this just as simple as a status quo or could it ring an alarm bell on the BN side that PR is holding ground in the Peninsular at least.
The results show one thing- that the wind of change akin to great typhoon is blowing hard over in Peninsular but it has yet to reach the shore in Sarawak which is still having a breeze of cool air.
While some may want to see a 3-0 result in favour of the PR but the fact is that Sarawak is still the BN’s fortress hard for the opposition to penetrate.
In March 8 general election last year, the state BN, led by Chief Minister, Pehin Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud won all the seats except Bandar Kuching, thus giving BN which lost its two third majority in the Parliament the much needed numbers to form the federal government.
With the state election due in two years time from now, and with the boisterous PR zooming in on Sarawak as its next target after capturing five states in Peninsular last year, the Batang Ai result could well put a damper on PR’s hope to seize Sarawak from the might of state BN.
The seat had been seen as a launching pad for PR to gain inroads into the state but the increased majority garnered by BN’s Malcom Mussen Lamoh over PR’s Jawah Gerang may have some sort affected the confidence of the opposition to put up a good fight in the coming state election.
While the by-election in Batang Ai could not be a yardstick to show the support for state BN like what the BN politicians across the South China Sea said the result in the two Bukits should not be seen as a referendum for the Perak political stalemate and Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak’s popularity, it is still anyone’s guess how the state BN will fare in the state election.
Toppling BN would be a Herculean task judging from the voting trend among the rural electorates as shown in Batang Ai.
A political observer said it right that rural folks do not really care about brainy issues such as the violation of rule of law or separation of powers or human rights as what these folks know is that as long as there is the so-called development fund or instant noodle projects coming to their way, they are all for the ruling coalition.
But the same cannot be said about the urban electorates who are more educated and well exposed as they do not simply rely only on mainstream media which is very much seen as mouthpiece of the government.
With the availability of new media, these electorates would double check the facts on internet news portal or blogs and thus making it more difficult to convince them.
This entails that BN coalition parties, especially SUPP will have to face the wrath of these urban electorates whom are largely Chinese for any shortcomings.
Going by the normal practice, SUPP is expected to contest in 19 state seats with majority of it being Chinese dominant while PBB will contest in more than half of the 71 state seats and SPDP and PRS sharing the remaining seats.
Political observers are not optimistic that BN will fare any better in urban seats which the SUPP was dealt with a serious blow in 2006 state election when it lost eight out of 19 seats it contested.
To them, the party which is still led by leaders, most of whom are already in their 60’s and still cling on to power not wanting to let go, does not appeal to younger voters who do not share the aspiration of these leaders who are still playing to the tunes of the 1960’s politics.
The coming state election may see the urban electorates taking the lead to effect the change in the state political landscape while the rural voting trend may still remain a status quo, thus benefitting the BN which is expected to remain politically untouchable and thus rule the state for the next five years.