What could be the by-elections results?

At this point of time when all of us are bracing for the hard times ahead, as economists predict that the whole world will see further economic catastrophe, we will be witnessing yet another two election battles in Peninsular Malaysia.

The sudden death of PAS Member of Parliament for Bukit Gantang, Roslan Shaharum and the abrupt resignation of state assemblyman for Bukit Selambau, V Arumugan have resulted in the Election Commission having to call for the by-elections within 60 days.

These two by-elections will be closely watched as it will be a referendum of sort to Barisan Nasional (BN) which pulled the carpet under Pakatan Rakyat (PR) when PKR state assemblymen for Behrang, Jamaluddin Mohd Radzi and Changkat Jering, Mohd Osman Jailu and DAP state assemblywoman for Jelapang, Hee Yit Foong quit their respective parties to be independents, causing PR to lose control of the state government which it governed for a mere 11 months after March 8 general election last year.

With the former Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin failed to get the consent from the Sultan of Perak to dissolve the state assembly in the hope of preventing the seizure by BN, the BN now governs the state with equal numbers of state assemblymen as PR at 28 with the three independents friendly to the coalition.

There are of course many arguments whether the act of hopping of these elected representatives is acceptable or not with some in the BN accusing the PR de facto leader, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim of starting the whole brouhaha when he declared last year that there would be massive defection of at least 31 Members of Parliament from the BN to PR.

Now that the two by-elections are bound to be held, the timing could not have been any better for the PR to prove itself as the people’s choice and that it is the legitimate Perak state government.

The BN will definitely have an uphill task to win both seats in view of the political wind of change currently blowing in the country.

Two losses in the previous by-elections in Permatang Pauh end of last year and Kuala Terengganu recently will be haunting the BN in the coming by-elections which must prove its worth to the people and that the way it won over the Perak state government via defection is not only legally right but also endorsed by the people.

In 2004, V Saravanan of MIC won the Bukit Selambau state seat in Kedah with 7,695 votes majority but lost it to PKR’s V Arumugan who obtained 2,362 votes majority on March 8 last year.

In the Bukit Gantang parliamentary seat in Perak, the late Roslan Shaharum beat Umno treasurer, Datuk Seri Azim Mohd Zabidi and an independent, M Murganan with 1,566 votes majority.

A news portal reported that 87.8% of its readers who took part in a survey on the Perak political imbroglio disagreed with the Sultan’s decision in the transfer of power in the silver state with 9.8% stood by the decision while another 2.4% being fence sitters in the survey.

If this survey is to hold any truth to the sentiment on the ground, then my bet will be BN will suffer further casualties in the two by-elections which may hold some bearings to the political future for incoming Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

The by-election heat is yet to be felt now but when the D-days are near, but we can expect to see yet another mud-slinging taking place during ceramahs with both divides hurling accuses at one another with of course the Perak incident taking the centre stage.

I myself have at many times condemned and loathed the practice of defection among politicians, not only during the Perak fiasco but also during the September 16 takeover claim by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, as I take it as an act of betrayal by these politicians against the wishes of the people.

As some analysts have said the short gain by BN in Perak may perhaps be a long suffering for the coalition if it does not yet wake up to the political reality and still plays to the old style of politicking which does not appeal anymore now.

Unless PR falls itself up and BN not taking any serious effort to revamp for the better, I guess the people would know deep inside their hearts who to vote for not only in these two by-elections but also the next general election.

But again in politics, a day is a long time and what more to say we have another 60 days to go for the by-elections.

In the meantime, let us enjoy the good fine weather after weeks of rain and cloudy sky.