London Bridge is falling down?

So now that the Kuala Terengganu by-election is over, with Opposition once again toppled the BN in by elections with a convincing victory of 2631 votes majority.

On the day of the by-election last Saturday, I received calls from as early as 5.30pm asking about the results.

Such was the enthusiasm shown by the people although the by-election was held far away in the east coast of West Malaysia.

By 8.30pm, I received a text message from a senior journalist based in Kuala Lumpur while sipping a cup of cappuccino at a coffee chain in town and the SMS went like this- “London Bridge is falling down. PAS wins with 2631 votes against BN.”

One may say the result should not be a benchmark for the looming state election which has to be called the latest by fourth quarter of 2011.

But I beg to differ as the Kuala Terengganu by-election result has confirmed one thing, that the political tsunami or avalanche as some people may fond of calling it, is for real and that it should not be taken as what the former Gerakan president, Tan Sri Lim Keng Yaik who brushed it off as just a breath of fresh air.

After the March 8 general election, the Permatang Pauh by-election had been seen as a barometer for many political parties and analysts on the effect of the so-called wind of change blowing in the country which has been ruled by the Barisan Nasional for five good decades.

The overwhelming majority obtained by the Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim who is instrumental in the formation of the Pakatan Rakyat consisting of PKR, DAP and PAS confirmed that change is the making in the nation’s political landscape.

The KT by-election result has doubled confirm that the people of Malaysia is ready and have no qualms of having a change of government for the better.

A doctorate student, Ong Kian Ming in his analysis on the KT by-election noticed that there was a surge in the number of young voters voting for the Opposition.

Despite the swing in Malay votes towards PAS which he regarded as insignificant and the strident claim by MCA that they have maintained or even increased the Chinese votes, Kian Ming cautioned that the result should be worrying for BN for the fact that the younger voters are more inclined to vote for Opposition.

Two million young new voters are expected to register with the Election Commission by the next general election and this group of Generation Y will be the determining factor of who will rule the country.

In his analysis, Kian Ming found out that the percentage of those age 35 and below voting for BN has decreased by 4.4% while those from 35 to 55 decreased by 1.5% and those age 55 and above decreased by 0.8%.

He also found out that younger voters are less susceptible to vote buying.

So let us come back to the looming state election.

I was very blunt with a former state assemblyman recently when he asked my opinion on the sentiment on the ground as I did it in good faith with no malicious intention.

With 71 state seats up for grabs, my prediction would be that the urban Chinese seats would see a disastrous outcome for the BN component SUPP which lost eight seats out of 19 seats it contested in the 2006 state election.

A senior journalist lamented to me once that this oldest political party had missed many times to change but its leaders were just being ignorant of the call, a death wish which sent the DAP jumping gleefully as one senior writer penned it in a national paper.

With PBB likely to contest in more than half of the state seats, a former political secretary predicted that a skeleton few may fall for the PKR should the latter take on PBB.

The former political secretary is not so optimistic with the view that the Opposition would form the next state government but he did not overrule that the state BN may be denied its two third majorities by the Opposition if no urgent or drastic effort is taken to remedy the already red colour alert beaming.

Regardless of anything, no one should take the KT by-election for granted as we have seen that the old politicking method is as good as a nostalgia which is no longer appealing to the young voters.

Handing out of monetary fund and casting fear of racial tension do not buy anymore for the voters who have the access to the internet who aspires for a corruption free, transparent, accountable and a fair and just society.

As one senior politician said before that changing the people may not be the best solution as what matters most is a change of mindset.

But there is this old saying which says we cannot teach a dog new tricks.